VAT 5% -> 7.5%
The Finance Act 2019 raised the standard VAT rate from 5% to 7.5% from 1 Feb 2020, just before the COVID oil crash.
- VAT: 5% -> 7.5% [FIRS_VAT_2020]
- Inflation 2019 / 2020: 11.4% / 13.2% [WDI_CPI]
- Oil 2019 / 2020: $64.2 / $41.8
Engage
Replay Nigeria's Economic History: 1986 to 2026
Historical facts are SOURCED. Game mechanics and approval are ILLUSTRATIVE – NOT A FORECAST.
Replay four real crises: SAP in 1986, Occupy Nigeria in 2012, the 2016 naira crisis and the 2023 reset. Make each call, see what was actually decided, then what really happened 6, 12 and 24 months later. Then take over in October 2026.
ILLUSTRATIVE ONLY. These rules simplify real economics into a teaching game. They are not a model of the Nigerian economy and must not be presented as predictions of any policy's effect.
How the game works
Each turn = 1 year (4 turns). Apply: (1) option effects for the year, drawing uniformly within [min,max]; (2) interaction rules; (3) one oil event draw; (4) approval update; (5) protest check. Ranges are deliberately small and rounded. They are informed by the direction and rough scale of real episodes (listed per rule) but are NOT estimated from data and must not be presented as predictions.
Replays. Each replay opens with the sourced setting and a short briefing, then asks 3 or 4 real decisions. After each call you see what was actually decided, with sources. At the end you get the sourced outcomes at about 6, 12 and 24 months, a two-sided debate and the archive clippings. The game also runs your choices and the real ones through the same illustrative rules for two years, so you can compare. Levers a replay does not ask about have no effect. Finish any replay to unlock free play from October 2026: four years, all five levers.
What is real and what is not. Settings, real decisions and outcomes are sourced history. Approval values and every game effect are illustrative.
Every option and its ranges
| Option | Effect ranges | Informed by (episode ids) |
|---|---|---|
| Fuel subsidy: Keep the price fixed | Every year: Deficit 0.5 to 1.5; Debt/GDP 0.5 to 1.5; Approval 0 to 2 deficit +1.0 extra per +$20 oil above $70 | NGA_2022_SUBSIDY_COST |
| Fuel subsidy: Raise the price in steps | Every year: Inflation 0.5 to 1.5; Deficit -0.5 to 0; Approval -4 to -2 Saving shrinks each year if FX depreciates >20% (step eroded) | NGA_1978_94_HIKES, IDN_2015_FUEL |
| Fuel subsidy: Remove it overnight | Year 1: Inflation 3 to 6; Growth -1 to 0; Deficit -1.5 to -0.5; Approval -25 to -15 Later years: Deficit -1.5 to -0.5; Approval 0 to 1 high in year 1 | NGA_2012_OCCUPY, NGA_2023_REMOVAL |
| Fuel subsidy: Remove it and pay people directly | Year 1: Inflation 2 to 5; Growth -0.5 to 0; Deficit -1 to -0.3; Approval -12 to -6 Later years: Deficit -1 to -0.3; Approval 1 to 3 Transfers work only if 'targeting_database' is unlocked (else treat as fuel_big_bang with approval -3 better) | IDN_2015_FUEL, NGA_2023_REMOVAL |
| Exchange rate: Hard peg | Every year: Naira fall 0 to 0; Street premium 5 to 20; Reserves -6 to -2; Inflation -1 to 1; Approval 0 to 2 If reserves < 10 (US$bn) the peg breaks: forced one-off fx_depreciation [80,150], inflation +[8,15], approval -15 | NGA_1981_PEG, NGA_1994_PEG |
| Exchange rate: Multiple windows / rationing | Every year: Naira fall 5 to 15; Street premium 5 to 15; Reserves -4 to 0; Growth -0.5 to 0; Approval -1 to 1 | NGA_2015_23_WINDOWS, ARG_2023_25_FX |
| Exchange rate: Managed float / band | Year 1: Naira fall 25 to 45; Street premium -20 to -5; Inflation 2 to 5; Approval -6 to -3 Later years: Naira fall 5 to 15; Street premium -10 to 0; Reserves -1 to 2 | NGA_2016_FLOAT, ARG_2023_25_FX, NGA_1999_UNIFY |
| Exchange rate: Free float / unify | Year 1: Naira fall 40 to 120; Street premium -40 to -20; Inflation 5 to 12; Growth -1 to 0; Approval -12 to -6 Year 2: Naira fall 0 to 40; Inflation 0 to 4; Reserves 2 to 8 Later years: Naira fall -5 to 10; Street premium -5 to 0; Inflation -8 to -3; Reserves 2 to 8; Approval 1 to 3 Debt/GDP jumps by [3,8] in year 1 if external debt share is high (naira value of FX debt). | NGA_1986_SFEM, NGA_2023_UNIFY, EGY_2016_FLOAT |
| Borrowing (incl. CBN Ways & Means): Ways & Means (CBN overdraft) | Every year: Inflation 2 to 5; Naira fall 3 to 10; Street premium 3 to 10; Debt/GDP 1 to 3; Approval 0 to 1 | NGA_2015_23_WM |
| Borrowing (incl. CBN Ways & Means): Borrow at home (bonds, T-bills) | Every year: Debt/GDP 1 to 3; Growth -0.5 to 0; interest_burden +[3,6] pp of revenue | NGA_2023_26_DOMESTIC |
| Borrowing (incl. CBN Ways & Means): Borrow abroad (Eurobonds, loans) | Every year: Debt/GDP 1 to 3; Reserves 1 to 4 If debt_gdp > 70 or (oil crash AND reserves < 15): 50% chance of debt crisis -> inflation +[10,25], gdp_growth -[2,5], approval -20, forced switch to borrow_relief_restraint | NGA_1980S_DEBT, GHA_2022_DEBT |
| Borrowing (incl. CBN Ways & Means): Cut the deficit / seek relief | Every year: Debt/GDP -4 to -1; Growth -1 to 0; Approval -3 to 0 If oil > $90 for 2+ years, unlock 'pay off creditors' event: debt_gdp -[8,15] once | NGA_2005_PARIS, GHA_2022_DEBT |
| Tax: Cut taxes | Every year: Deficit 0.3 to 1; Growth 0 to 0.5; Approval 2 to 4 | NGA_1975_RELIEF, NGA_2025_TAX_ACTS |
| Tax: Raise VAT | Year 1: Inflation 0.5 to 1.5; Deficit -0.8 to -0.3; Approval -5 to -2 Later years: Deficit -0.8 to -0.3 | NGA_2020_VAT |
| Tax: Reform and widen the base | Year 1: Deficit -0.3 to 0; Approval -2 to 0 Later years: Deficit -1 to -0.3; Approval 0 to 1 Revenue gain arrives with a 1-year lag (collection build-up). | NGA_2025_TAX_ACTS |
| Tax: Keep relying on oil | Every year: Deficit 0 to 0 deficit +1.5 per -$20 oil below $70; -1.0 per +$20 above | NGA_OIL_DEPENDENCE |
| Spending: Spend big now | Every year: Growth 0.5 to 1.5; Inflation 1 to 3; Deficit 1 to 3; Approval 3 to 6 Cutting later costs approval -[8,12] | NGA_1975_BOOM |
| Spending: Cut spending | Every year: Growth -2 to -0.5; Deficit -2 to -1; Inflation -1 to 0; Approval -6 to -3 | NGA_1982_AUSTERITY |
| Spending: Prioritise infrastructure | Year 1: Deficit 0.5 to 1.5; Approval 0 to 1 Later years: Growth 0.3 to 1; Deficit 0.5 to 1.5; Approval 1 to 2 30% chance per year that half the growth effect is lost (padding/non-execution) | NGA_2026_CAPEX, IDN_2015_INFRA |
| Spending: Wages and cash support | Every year: Deficit 0.5 to 1.5; Inflation 0.5 to 1.5; Approval 3 to 6 | NGA_2024_WAGE |
Why bundles matter: interactions
- If fuel removed (big_bang or with_transfers) AND fx_free_float in the same year, then inflation +[2,4] extra (double shock); approval -5 extra, but reversal probability halves next year (bundled reform) (NGA_2023_REMOVAL, NGA_2023_UNIFY, NGA_1986_SFEM)
- If fuel_keep_fixed AND fx depreciation > 30% that year, then subsidy cost doubles: deficit +[1,2] extra (NGA_2022_SUBSIDY_COST, NGA_2015_23_WINDOWS)
- If borrow_central_bank AND fx_hard_peg or fx_multiple_windows, then parallel_premium +[5,15] extra (NGA_2015_23_WM, NGA_2015_23_WINDOWS)
- If fx_free_float AND borrow_central_bank, then float fails to settle: later-year inflation effect becomes +[2,6] instead of falling (NGA_2015_23_WM, NGA_2023_UNIFY)
- If deficit > 5% of GDP for 2 straight years, then debt_gdp +[2,4] extra per year; if borrowing is domestic, gdp_growth -0.5 (NGA_2026_CAPEX, NGA_2023_26_DOMESTIC)
- If tight money assumed (not a player lever), then the CBN is treated as independent: if inflation > 25, CBN raises rates automatically -> next year inflation -[2,5], gdp_growth -[0.5,1] (NGA_2023_UNIFY)
Oil, approval, protests and the election
Each year one oil event is drawn: crash 15%, spike 10%, normal 75%. Post-2023 a spike both raises revenue and raises pump prices (Punch, 3 May 2026). ILLUSTRATIVE: roughly 3 big crashes (1986, 2014-16, 2020) and 1-2 spikes in ~40 years of the EI series; not a statistical estimate.
- inflation above 20%: -1 per point above 20 (cap -12)
- gdp_growth above 3%: +1 per point above 3 (cap +4)
- gdp_growth below 0: -5
- parallel_premium above 30%: -3 (dollar scarcity stories)
- election year (year 4): approval >= 50 -> re-elected; 40-49 -> runoff coin-flip; < 40 -> lose
Protest check: approval < 35 AND (a fuel removal or a float happened this year OR inflation > 30); chance 50%. Real protests: Jan 2012 strike (partial reversal); 1989 anti-SAP riots (at least 22 dead); Aug 2024 #EndBadGovernance (at least 24 killed). The game should not gamify casualties; show them as historical context only.
The real numbers, 1980 to 2025
What actually happened to prices and growth while governments pulled these levers. GDP growth uses one series throughout: the World Bank's WDI (constant prices). The NBS rebased its GDP in 2025, so its figures for 2020 to 2025 differ.
Sources: WDI FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG; WDI NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG. CPI was rebased in early 2025, so 2025 inflation is not strictly comparable with 2024. WDI's 1981 growth figure (-13.1%) reflects the overvalued naira of the time; treat it with care.
All 32 real episodes
Open the episode library
Occupy Nigeria
Petrol went from N65 to about N141 on 1 Jan 2012; a national strike and protests followed ('Remove corruption, not subsidy'); on 16 Jan the price was cut back to N97 (partial reversal).
- Price: N65 -> N141 -> N97 [GNAD_2012]
- Oil 2012: $111.7/bbl
2023 unification ('willing buyer, willing seller')
All windows collapsed into one market on 14 Jun 2023. The rate closed at N664.04 on day one, the parallel rate hit about N1,830-1,900 in Feb 2024, then the market stabilised: N1,329.50 official vs about N1,370-1,385 parallel at end-Sep 2026; reserves $55.25bn (18 Sep 2026).
- Day-one close: N664.04/$ (I&E) [NAIRAMETRICS_664_2023]
- Parallel record low: N1,830/$ (21 Feb 2024) [NAIRAMETRICS_1830_2024]
- Official avg 2023 / 2024 / 2025: N645 / N1,479 / N1,518 [WDI_FX]
- Inflation peak: 34.80% (Dec 2024) [GUARDIAN_INF_DEC24]
- NFEM close 30 Sep 2026: N1,329.50/$ [NAIRAMETRICS_FX_SEP2026]
- Parallel 30 Sep 2026: N1,370/$ (gap N41) [VANGUARD_PARALLEL_SEP2026]
- Inflation Aug 2026: 15.39% [PT_CPI_AUG2026]
Udoji and the N30bn plan
Oil-boom spending: the Udoji public-pay award and a N30bn Third National Development Plan.
- Third Plan cost: N30bn [NN_PLAN_1975]
Stepwise petrol hikes, 1978-1994
Pump prices were raised in steps (1978, 1982, 1986, 1988, 1989 two-tier, 1991, 1993) and partly reversed (Shonekan 70k->N5 in Nov 1993, back to N3.25; Abacha N3.25->N15 cut to N11 in Oct 1994). Inflation eroded each increase.
- 1989 two-tier: 42k -> 60k/litre for private motorists [NN_FUEL_1989]
- Nov 1993: 70k -> N5, reversed to N3.25 [VANGUARD_FUEL_TL]
- Oct 1994: N3.25 -> N15 -> N11 [NN_FUEL_1994]
The administered 'strong naira'
The official rate was set administratively and dollars were rationed through import licences while oil earnings fell; reserves drained and the 1982 Economic Stabilisation Act followed.
Boom-time loans, bust-time arrears
Federal and state governments took syndicated loans in the boom; by 1984 debt service took 'about 28.42%' of export earnings; Paris Club rescheduling followed in Dec 1986; by 1989 debt service was projected at about 80% of export income. Babangida rejected the IMF loan (Dec 1985).
- Debt service ratio 1984: about 28.42% [CODESRIA_1984]
- External debt / GDP 1980 -> 1989: 13.9% -> 68.5% (calc.) [WDI_EXTDEBT]
- Oil price 1985 -> 1986: $27.6 -> $14.4/bbl
1986 oil crash
World crude roughly halved.
- Oil 1985 -> 1986: $27.6 -> $14.4 [EI_OIL]
1999: official N22 rate abolished
The official N22 rate was dropped and the official series moved to the market-based rate.
- Official avg 1998 -> 1999: N21.89 -> N92.34/$ [WDI_FX]
The June 2016 'flexible' float
The CBN removed the N197 peg; the official rate moved to about N280-282 on day one. The parallel rate was about N345 that day and kept weakening into 2017, so the float was partial in practice.
- Official rate day one: about N281.85/$ [NAIRAMETRICS_FLOAT_2016]
- Parallel day one: about N345/$ [NAIRAMETRICS_FLOAT_2016]
- Move: naira -30% [REUTERS_FLOAT_2016]
Relying on oil revenue
When oil fell from about $112 (2014) to below $50, Nigeria went into recession; crude sales were '70% of government income'.
- Oil share of govt income: 70% [BBC_2016]
- Oil 2014 -> 2016: $99.0 -> $43.7 [EI_OIL]
- GDP 2016: -1.62% (WDI)
2014-16 oil crash
Oil fell from about $112 to below $50; Nigeria entered recession in 2016.
- Oil 2014 -> 2016: $99.0 -> $43.7 [EI_OIL]
- GDP Q2 2016: -2.06% [BBC_2016]
Indonesia redirects subsidy savings
Subsidy savings went to infrastructure, social programmes and SOE capital injections; infrastructure spending rose sharply in 2015, though execution fell short of targets.
- Savings reallocated: about Rp211trn [IISD_INDONESIA_2015]
- GDP growth 2015 / 2016: 4.88% / 5.03% [WDI_FOREIGN]
Ways & Means: printing to fund the budget
CBN overdrafts to the federal government rose from N648.26bn (Jun 2015) to N19.91trn (Jun 2022), far above the CBN Act limit (5% of prior-year revenue); N22.7trn was securitised into bonds in May 2023. From 2024 the CBN said it would grant no new advances until old ones were repaid and kept the 5% cap.
- W&M stock Jun 2015: N648.26bn [TRIBUNE_WM_2022]
- W&M stock Dec 2020: N13.11trn [TRIBUNE_WM_2022]
- Securitised May 2023: N22.7trn [NAIRAMETRICS_WM_2023]
- Inflation 2015 -> 2022: 9.0% -> 18.8%
COVID crash
Budget benchmark cut from $57 to $25-28.
- Oil 2019 -> 2020: $64.2 -> $41.8 [EI_OIL]
- 2020 benchmark: $57 -> $28 [THISDAY_OIL_2020]
The cost of holding the price
With the pump price fixed and the naira overvalued, NNPC's petrol subsidy cost N4.39trn (~$10bn) in 2022.
- Subsidy 2022: N4.39trn (~$10bn) [REUTERS_SUBSIDY_2022]
- Oil 2022: $101.3/bbl
Ghana's 2022 debt crisis
After years of Eurobond borrowing, Ghana launched a domestic debt exchange (5 Dec 2022) and suspended most external debt payments (19 Dec 2022), then took a $3bn IMF ECF. Inflation hit 54.1% in Dec 2022.
- Inflation Dec 2022: 54.1% (22-year high) [REUTERS_GHANA_CPI]
- Gen. gov. debt / GDP 2022: 92.7% [IMF_DEBT_FOREIGN]
- Cedi avg 2021 -> 2022 -> 2023: 5.81 -> 8.27 -> 11.02/$ [WDI_FOREIGN]
- Debt / GDP 2025 (IMF): 48.8% [IMF_DEBT_FOREIGN]
Borrowing at market rates
With W&M closed, the government borrowed through bonds, T-bills and Eurobonds at high rates (MPR peaked at 27.50%). Public debt rose from N87.38trn (Jun 2023) to N166.79trn ($120.93bn) at 30 Jun 2026, much of the naira rise reflecting devaluation and the W&M securitisation. 2026 budget debt service: N15.8trn vs N36.87trn projected revenue.
- Public debt Jun 2023 -> Jun 2026: N87.38trn -> N166.79trn [NAIRAMETRICS_DEBT_Q2_2026]
- MPR peak: 27.50% (Nov 2024) [PROSHARE_MPC155]
- Gen. gov. debt / GDP (IMF) 2023 / 2025: 36.3% / 35.5% [IMF_DEBT]
- 2026 debt service vs revenue: N15.8trn vs N36.87trn [NAIRAMETRICS_BUDGET_2026]
'Fuel subsidy is gone'
Tinubu declared the subsidy gone at his inauguration; within two days petrol went from N189 to as much as N557. Combined with FX unification, pump prices later reached about N1,385 (Lagos) to N1,456 (Yobe) per litre by Sep 2026, now set by Dangote/imports and world prices. Labour suspended its June 2023 strike; a N70,000 minimum wage was agreed in July 2024.
- Price day 2: N189 -> up to N557 [REUTERS_PETROL_2023]
- NNPC Lagos, 25 Sep 2026: N1,385/litre [LEGIT_PETROL_SEP2026]
- Dangote ex-gantry, Sep 2026: N1,325/litre [LEGIT_PETROL_SEP2026]
- Minimum wage: N70,000 (Jul 2024) [NEWSDIRECT_WAGE_2024]
Egypt's 2016 float
Egypt floated the pound, moving from about EGP 8.88/$ to 13 and then weaker, tied to a 3-year $12bn IMF Extended Fund Facility (approved 11 Nov 2016). Inflation peaked around 33% in mid-2017.
- Rate move: EGP 8.88 -> 13+/$ [AP_EGYPT_2016]
- IMF EFF: $12bn [IMF_EGYPT_2016]
- Inflation 2017 (WDI avg): 29.5% [WDI_FOREIGN]
The 'Biggest Relief Budget'
In the oil boom the 1975 budget cut excise duties and company tax 'as a way of beating inflation' and raised the travel allowance; the Udoji pay award came the same season.
- Headline: 'B-I-G-G-E-S-T Relief Budget!' [OBSERVER_1975]
Austerity: 1982 and 1984
Shagari's Economic Stabilisation Act (Apr 1982) recalled import licences, cut travel allowances and raised petrol 15k->20k; Buhari's 1984 budget put all imports under licence: 'No medicine is without pain'.
- GDP growth 1982 / 1983 / 1984: -6.80% / -10.92% / -1.12% [WDI_GDP]
- Inflation 1983 / 1984: 23.2% / 17.8%
Argentina: from 'cepo' controls to a band
Argentina ran capital controls ('cepo') with parallel rates; on 12 Dec 2023 the official peso was devalued from about 366 to 800/$ with spending cuts; in April 2025 most controls were lifted and the peso floats inside a ARS 1,000-1,400 band, backed by a $20bn IMF EFF.
- Devaluation: ARS ~366 -> 800/$ (Dec 2023) [REUTERS_ARG_DEVAL]
- Inflation 2023: 211.4% y/y; Dec 2023 m/m 25.5% [REUTERS_ARG_CPI]
- Band from Apr 2025: ARS 1,000-1,400/$ [BCRA_2025]
- IMF: $20bn EFF [REUTERS_ARG_IMF_2025]
- GDP growth 2024 / 2025: -1.34% / 4.37% [WDI_FOREIGN]
A capital-heavy 2026 budget
The 2026 Appropriation Act (N68.32trn, signed 17 Apr 2026) allots N32.2trn to capital, about half; analysts derive a deficit of about N31.45trn (6.41% of GDP, BudgIT) - above the 3% Fiscal Responsibility Act ceiling - and BudgIT flagged about N6.93trn of questionable inserted projects.
- Budget: N68.32trn [NAIRAMETRICS_BUDGET_2026]
- Capital: N32.2trn [NAIRAMETRICS_BUDGET_2026]
- Derived deficit: N31.45trn (6.41% GDP) per BudgIT [NAIRAMETRICS_BUDGET_2026]
2026 US-Iran war spike
The US-Iran war began 28 Feb 2026 with oil below $70; Bonny Light traded at $134 by end-April; Punch estimated a N5.13trn gross oil windfall over March-April vs the $64.85 budget benchmark, while Dangote raised petrol prices. EIA's Brent spot price was $113.96 on 29 Sep 2026.
- Bonny Light peak quoted: $134/bbl (Apr 2026) [PUNCH_WINDFALL_2026]
- Windfall estimate (gross, not all FG): N5.13trn (Mar-Apr 2026) [PUNCH_WINDFALL_2026]
- Brent 29 Sep 2026: $113.96 [BRENT_SEP2026]
- Crude+condensate output Aug 2026: 1.677m bpd vs 1.84m budgeted [THISDAY_OILOUT_AUG2026]
Abacha's N22 peg
The 1994 budget re-pegged the naira at N22/$ after the SAP float, with controls; the CBN calls it a 'policy reversal'. A Kaduna business leader welcomed pegging 'from 48 to 22 Naira', i.e. the market rate was over twice the peg. Guided deregulation (AFEM) from 1995 created a dual system until 1999.
- Peg: N22/$ [NN_PEG_1994]
- Market rate implied in Jan 1994: about N48/$ [NN_PEG_REACT_1994]
- Inflation 1994 / 1995: 57.0% / 72.8%
- GDP growth 1994 / 1995: -1.81% / -0.07%
N70,000 minimum wage and relief
After strikes and negotiation, labour accepted a N70,000 minimum wage (Jul 2024), up from N30,000; earlier SAP-era parallel: the 1989 'SAP relief package'.
- Minimum wage: N70,000/month [NEWSDIRECT_WAGE_2024]
Multiple windows and the '41 items'
After the 2014 oil crash the CBN held the official rate, denied official FX for 40 listed import categories (23 Jun 2015), floated briefly in June 2016, opened the I&E window in 2017, and ran several rates until 14 Jun 2023. Buhari said devaluation would 'kill' the naira.
- Official peg before Jun 2016: N197/$ [REUTERS_FLOAT_2016]
- Parallel vs official, 20 Feb 2017: N520 vs ~N305.50 (gap ~N210) [TRIBUNE_520_2017]
- Items 'not valid for FX': 40 numbered entries [CBN_CIRC_2015]
- Recession: GDP -2.06% (Q2 2016) [BBC_2016]
- Inflation 2016-2022 (WDI): 15.7% to 18.8%
Indonesia's 2014-15 fuel subsidy reform
Jokowi raised subsidised Premium petrol from Rp6,500 to Rp8,500 (18 Nov 2014), then in Jan 2015 removed the gasoline subsidy and fixed diesel support at Rp1,000/l, timed with falling oil prices; savings of about Rp211trn were reallocated to infrastructure and social programmes.
- Price hike: Rp6,500 -> Rp8,500/l (+31%) [JP_INDONESIA_2014]
- Budget savings 2015: about Rp211trn [IISD_INDONESIA_2015]
- Fuel subsidy cost: 2.4% of GDP (2014) -> 0.6% (2015) [WB_INDONESIA_INFRA]
- Inflation 2014 / 2015 / 2016: 6.4% / 6.4% / 3.5% [WDI_FOREIGN]
Paris Club exit
Nigeria agreed a comprehensive treatment: about $18bn (about 60%) cancelled, Nigeria paying $12.4bn, using high oil revenue.
- Cancelled: about $18bn (~60%) [PARIS_2005]
- Gen. gov. debt / GDP 2004 -> 2006: 25.2% -> 6.7% [IMF_DEBT]
SFEM: the first float
Under SAP, the Second-tier Foreign Exchange Market auctioned dollars; the naira went from about N1.33 to N4.6174 at the first auction (26 Sep 1986), firmed to about N3.00 by early December, and the tiers merged in July 1987. No IMF loan, but an IMF-style package.
- First SFEM rate: N4.6174/$ (from ~N1.33) [NN_SFEM_1986]
- Marginal rate 4 Dec 1986: N3.0005/$ [NN_SFEM_DEC86]
- Official avg 1987: N4.016/$
- Inflation 1988 / 1989: 54.5% / 50.5%
The 2025 tax reform acts
Four Acts (Nigeria Tax Act, Nigeria Tax Administration Act, Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Act) consolidated tax law, replaced FIRS with the NRS, kept VAT at 7.5%, exempted small companies (turnover up to N50m) and the first N800,000 of personal income, set a 25% top PIT rate and a 4% development levy replacing several levies.
- Effective: 1 Jan 2026 [EY_NTA_2025]
- VAT: 7.5% (unchanged) [PWC_TAX_2025]
- Small company: turnover <= N50m exempt from CIT/CGT/levy [KPMG_NTA_2025]
- PIT: first N800,000 exempt; top rate 25% [PWC_TAX_2025]
- Q1 2026 tax collections: N2.24trn below target
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