About us
2023–present · Civilian
SAP 2.0: free the naira, end the subsidy, raise interest rates, and ask people to wait for the payoff.
47/100 Draft
| Indicator | Measured | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 26.97% a year on average | 27 |
| Growth | 3.8% a year on average | 54 |
| Naira stability | Official rate 645.2 -> 1518 (₦ per $); 53.41% a year | 0 |
| Public debt | IMF WEO general-government gross debt/GDP: 36.3 -> 35.5% of GDP; -0.4 pp a year | 68 |
| Reserves | 7.12 months of imports at the end | 85 |
Evidence: method, Pillar A · sources
Challenge this score2.5/4 (62.5/100) Draft, open for public review
2.5/4 (Q1 1; Q2 0.5; Q3 1; Q4 0). New Ways & Means advances were halted and its reforms lasted, but the FX premium stayed large until 2025-26 and the 2024 and 2025 budgets ran concurrently (interim).
Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit? 1
Yes. The CBN Governor welcomed the 'discontinuing [of] Ways and Means advances' under s.38 of the CBN Act (Leadership, 10 Feb 2024). The CBN kept the Ways and Means limit at 5% for 2024-25 even though the National Assembly had allowed more (Punch, 17 Sep 2024). The N22.7trn legacy stock was securitised before this government. [LEADERSHIP_WM_2024] [PUNCH_WM_5PCT_2024] [NAIRAMETRICS_WM_2023]
Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium? 0.5 Disputed
Disputed. The windows were unified on 14 Jun 2023, but a large gap persisted into 2024 (parallel N1,830 in Feb 2024). It had narrowed to about 3% by end-Sep 2026 (parallel N1,370 vs NFEM N1,330.47). [THECABLE_2023] [NAIRAMETRICS_1830_2024] [VANGUARD_PARALLEL_SEP2026] [TRIBUNE_FX_SEP2026]
Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal? 1
Yes. Subsidy removal (May 2023) and FX unification (Jun 2023) both lasted more than 12 months. Petrol was about N1,385/litre in Lagos in Sep 2026, and NFEM still operates. [CHANNELS_INAUG_2023] [THECABLE_2023] [LEGIT_PETROL_SEP2026] [NAIRAMETRICS_FX_SEP2026]
Budgets broadly implemented as passed? 0
No. The 2024 capital budget's implementation was extended to 30 Jun 2025 and then to 31 Dec 2025 (Daily Trust, 25 Jun 2025), so the 2024 and 2025 budgets ran concurrently. In Dec 2025 the 2024 and 2025 Acts were repealed and re-enacted. [DT_BUDGET_EXT] [ALLAFRICA_REPEAL]
Evidence: method, Pillar B · sources
Challenge this score3/4 (75/100) Draft, open for public review
3 reforms judged clearly durable (interim; durability cannot yet be tested over 5 years).
Evidence: method, Pillar C · sources
Challenge this score
