2010–2015 · Civilian

Goodluck Jonathan

Occupy Nigeria: a generation's first big street fight over fuel, and the government blinked.

Scorecard Draft

In office 2010-05-06 to 2015-05-29 · scored years: 2010-2014 (5). How we score · Public review

Composite score62/100Draft, open for public reviewEconomic outcomes 50%, policy credibility 25%, institutional reforms 25%.
Oil contextOil tailwind (+45%)Average $102.01 a barrel in 2010-2014 vs $70.2 before (2005-2009). Shown for context; the score is not adjusted for oil. [EI_OIL]

Economic outcomes 50%

62/100 Draft

Computed from World Bank WDI and IMF data.

Indicator scores (0 to 100), 2010-2014 (5)
IndicatorMeasuredScore
Inflation10.67% a year on average81
Growth6.1% a year on average87
Naira stabilityOfficial rate 150.3 -> 158.6 (₦ per $); 1.35% a year95
Public debtIMF WEO general-government gross debt/GDP: 6.7 -> 15.8% of GDP; 2.28 pp a year14
Reserves3.92 months of imports at the end32

Evidence: method, Pillar A · sources

Challenge this score

Policy credibility 25%

2/4 (50/100) Draft, open for public review

2/4 (Q1 0.5; Q2 1; Q3 0.5; Q4 0). The FX premium was small, but the 2012 subsidy removal was partly reversed and only about 51% of the 2012 capital budget was used. The Ways & Means limit test is unverified.

  1. Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit? 0.5 Disputed

    Disputed. Ways & Means stood at N648.26bn in Jun 2015, two weeks after Jonathan left (Tribune). No source compares the balance during his years with the 5% limit. [TRIBUNE_WM_2022] [DT_WM_50BN]

  2. Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium? 1

    Yes. The BDC premium over WDAS was about 1-2% in 2012-13, rising to about 11% by Dec 2014 (N188.45 vs N169.68) (CBN monthly data via Investors King). One official window. [IK_BDC] [CBN_MPC82_2012]

  3. Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal? 0.5 Disputed

    Disputed. The flagship Jan 2012 subsidy removal (N65 to N141) was partly reversed within about 16 days (to N97). Power privatisation (Nov 2013) lasted. [BBC_2012] [GNAD_2012] [NATION_POWER_2013]

  4. Budgets broadly implemented as passed? 0

    No. 2012: of N1,339.99bn projected capital spending, N739.3bn was cash-backed and N686.3bn used (about 51%) (Budget Office, 2012 Budget Implementation Report). [BUDGET_2012]

Evidence: method, Pillar B · sources

Challenge this score

Institutional reforms 25%

3/4 (75/100) Draft, open for public review

3 durable reforms.

Counted

  • 19 Jul 2010 AMCON Act 2010 (bad-bank resolution). [AMCON_2010]
  • 26 May 2011 Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority Act 2011. [NSIA_OD]
  • 1 Nov 2013 Power generation and distribution companies handed to private owners. [NATION_POWER_2013]

Listed, not counted

  • Apr 2010 Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development Act 2010. It lasted (NCDMB reports local content rising from under 5% to 61%), but it is a local-content mandate; not counted under GPLab's lens, consistent with indigenisation. [ips10] [NATION_NCDMB_61]

Evidence: method, Pillar C · sources

Challenge this score
Challenge this score

Tell us which score you think is wrong, what it should be and why, with a source. We judge challenges on evidence, not opinion. How challenges are judged

Which part? (required)

Nothing is sent by this site: your email app opens with the challenge filled in, addressed to [email protected].

Sources for this card (21)
  1. AMCON_2010 Investadvocate, 20 Jul 2010, 'President Signs AMCON Bill' (CBN press release: signed 19 Jul 2010) (2010-07-20) accessed 2026-10-02
  2. BBC_2012 BBC News, 2 Jan 2012 (fuel subsidy removal protests; N65 to N141+) (2012-01-02)
  3. BUDGET_2012 Federal Ministry of Finance / Budget Office, 2012 Budget Implementation Report, year-end (via CABRI): N739.3bn of N1,339.99bn capital cash-backed, N686.3bn utilised (2013) accessed 2026-10-02
  4. CBN_MPC82_2012 CBN, Monetary Policy Committee Communique No. 82, 19-20 Mar 2012 (reserves $32.64bn end-Dec 2011, $35.43bn 14 Mar 2012; WDAS N158.62 end-Jan 2012; interbank N161.60; BDC N163.00; inflation 10.3% Dec 2011, 11.9% Feb 2012) (2012-03-20)
  5. CHANG_2002 Ha-Joon Chang, Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective (Anthem Press, 2002) (2002)
  6. DT_WM_50BN Daily Trust, 26 Feb 2024, 'How $50bn equivalent was printed and fritted in ways and means' (CBN Act s.38(2); W&M N856bn to N23.8trn) (2024-02-26) accessed 2026-10-02
  7. EI_OIL Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl) (2026)
  8. GNAD_2012 Global Nonviolent Action Database (Swarthmore), 'Nigerians protest removal of fuel subsidy, 2012' (price cut back to N97, 16 Jan 2012) (2012)
  9. HOUSE_SUBSIDY_2012 House of Representatives Ad-Hoc Committee (chair Farouk Lawan), 'To verify and determine the actual subsidy requirements and monitor the implementation of the subsidy regime in Nigeria', Apr 2012 (PDF hosted by Channels TV); figures here via search summary and Vanguard - PDF not read in full (2012-04)
  10. IK_BDC Investors King, 6 Jul 2021, 'Central Bank of Nigeria BDC monthly average exchange rates of naira' (CBN data table; Dec 2014 BDC N188.45 vs official N169.68) (2021-07-06) accessed 2026-10-02; secondary reproduction of CBN data
  11. IMF_DEBT IMF World Economic Outlook via DataMapper API, General government gross debt (% of GDP), GGXWDG_NGDP (latest vintage served on 1 Oct 2026; 2026+ are IMF projections) (2026-10-01)
  12. MCCULLOCH_2021 Neil McCulloch, Tom Moerenhout & Joonseok Yang, 'Fuel subsidy reform and the social contract in Nigeria: A micro-economic analysis', Energy Policy (Sep 2021), open access via PMC (2021-09)
  13. NATION_NCDMB_61 The Nation, 'Nigeria local content peaks at 61%' (NCDMB: from under 5% in 2010; via search summary) (2025)
  14. NATION_POWER_2013 The Nation, 1 Nov 2013 (power-sector handover; N600bn-N1trn liabilities to NELMCO) (2013-11-01)
  15. NSIA_OD Nigeria Open Data, 'Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority (Establishment, etc.) Act 2011' (signed 2011-05-26, assented by Jonathan) (undated) accessed 2026-10-02; secondary compiler. NSIA's own Act page returned 404 (https://nsia.com.ng/resources/nsia-act-2011/)
  16. TRIBUNE_WM_2022 Nigerian Tribune, 15 Aug 2022, 'FG borrows N19.3trn from CBN in 7 years' (W&M N648.26bn Jun 2015; N856.33bn Dec 2015; N2.23trn 2016; N3.31trn 2017; N5.41trn 2018; N8.72trn 2019; N13.11trn 2020; N17.46trn 2021; N19.91trn Jun 2022; CBN data) (2022-08-15)
  17. WDI_CPI_1960 World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13) (2026-07-13) live pull saved 2026-10-02
  18. WDI_FX_1960 World Bank WDI API, PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average; pre-1973 values in naira-equivalent units), Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13) (2026-07-13) live pull saved 2026-10-02
  19. WDI_GDP_1960 World Bank WDI API, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria, 1961-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13) (2026-07-13) live pull saved 2026-10-02
  20. WDI_RESMO_1960 World Bank WDI API, FI.RES.TOTL.MO (total reserves in months of imports), Nigeria, 1977-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13) (2026-07-13) live pull saved 2026-10-02
  21. ips10 IPS, 23 Apr 2010 (Local Content Act signed)

How to read this scorecard: what each field means, data years and sources → · Draft scoring method →